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John Saunders –
Story about Indian Chief
On faculty at Information Resources Management College National Defense University (students are LtCol, Col and General Officers)IRMC was 1st college in world University umbrella dedicated to the study of IT and all aspects. Now UC Berkeley, Syracuse, and Penn State. Run DoD’s Information Warfare program, 1st grads in 1995, now integrated with NWC and ICAF programs
One of National Security Agency’s “Center of Academic Excellence” in Information Assurance. Students receive NSA approved 4011 certificate.
Now setting up (about 50% complete) “Silicon Curtain” Simulation Lab. Test bed for running and testing InfoSec simulations.
The Information Resources Management (IRM) College prepares leaders to direct the information component of national power by leveraging information and information technology for strategic advantage. Primary areas of concentration include business process reengineering, IRM law and policy, information technology, information security, management of acquisition processes 
IRMC Courses free to National Security Agencies, low cost to other Feds, open on limited basis to private sector
What is M&S – Some definitions to limit the scope of my talk
what simulations are out there -  Primary focus –, how have they worked out? Will Show you some of them
Issues with simulation will rise as we review the experience of others in using them – cost, learning curves, level of detail
General break out of types of simulations along tool lines – network modeling tools, management flight simulators, etc
Brief discussion of modeling “standards”/ frameworks
Would certainly be thrilled to hear about any efforts within your organizations in this arena
Key work here is SYSTEM. Modeling is about understanding systems - how does this thing work, what are all the components, how do they fit together, what feedback mechanism are in place.
Transportation Centers – FAA, City Subway Systems, Electrical Utilties
NOCs w/ HP Openview, Tivoli, CA Unicenter
Models discussed here today are planning and learning models
Symbolic modeling maybe something like predicate calculus [John ?? At University of Tulsa] or state space/Petri Net [Moitra&Konda at Carnegie Mellon Univ] modeling which utilizes a specific set of symbols to represent ideas about objects, time, sets, and ways to manipulate them
Security models typically not used for “optimization” although can be. More often used for configuration, testing, learning
You are likely wondering – what the heck does an elephant have to do with this?
“The Blind Men and the Elephant” by American poet John Godfrey Saxe (1816-1887) based upon an Indian fable.
Tusk – like a spear  Side – like a wall   Trunk – like a snake   Leg – like a tree   Ear – like a fan   Tail – like a rope
So oft in theologic wars,
The disputants, I ween,
Rail on in utter ignorance
Of what each other mean,
And prate about an elephant
Not one of them has seen.
What the system looks like depends upon your perspective. Most often none have the full picture
Instant "reset" of computers, networks, etc to initial conditions
Compression of long term activity into short periods
Lower cost than utilizing real computers, networks, software, protocols, etc
Ease of scalability
Creation of scenarios too risky for "real world" testing
Levels of abstraction like the OSI model may be represented
Ease of re-configuration
Capability for building in an “automatic/scripted” Black or White Team
When to Model?     Actual object or process:
Is very complex - too difficult to observe
Doesn’t currently exist
Is too dangerous to observe
Takes too long to observe
Has a large number of variations, and
Economically and operationally feasible to do so
Focus here is on Audience: What types of simulations are applicable to what groups
Packet Wars  for                                      System Admins
Sniffers + Network Design Tools for         System Designers
Canned Attack/Defend Scenarios for         New Users, IT Security Education
Management Flight Simulators – for         Security management
Role Playing – for                                    General Mgt – people who think UNIX are castrated males in a harem
Packet wars – greatest granularity, lowest organizational levels, Role Playing – least granularity, highest org levels
Characteristics/Benefits
Best way to go if available.
Uses real networks, real software,real exploits
Harmless
1st Service Academy Competition last April, includes awarding of trophy. Judged by expert team at NSA. Quote from Col/Dr Don Welsh, USMA “The highest learning I have ever seen as an educator took place in this one week exercise.”
SANS ID’net here in DC Rules of Engagement
Activity             Points
Port Scan            1
Script Kiddie        5
Recent Exploits  10
Old Exploits       20
New Exploit       50
No denial of service or DDOS attacks; Can defend: must allow basic services: web/mail/ftp/DNS; After attack is successful, cannot be repeated
Drawbacks
Big $ to set up – hardware, software, labor
Reset after exercise may even include complete reload of OS, databases, etc
Good primarily for only System Administrator level training, some managerial level awareness
As a sideline, although not a simulation tool, simple network diagramming can certainly be a low cost start to better understanding your system through a pictoral model. Use echo/ping  to establish segments, equipment types
Characteristics:
Utilize a sniffer to build DB of  packet streams,
Feed into Design/Modeling Tool to observe loads, flows, statistics – can usually interpret multiple protocols, equipment types
Benefits
Good for modeling Availability:
“What ifs” on host firewall loads, etc,
Loads on Authentication Servers,
Unusual Traffic Analysis
Visualization, compacting loads of traffic into a single visual
Drawbacks:
Fall short on modeling memory, software execution
Requires massive storage and processing power to collect/store data & then run the analysis
Expensive: Design tools $15000, Sniffers - similar
http://www.sniffer.com/
Next area is Canned Attack Defend
Characteristics
Canned rules,
Limited (but often numerous) scenarios, fixed decision tree execution paths
Often some random elements
High up front building costs – multimedia package like Visual Basic, Macromedia Authorware: Rule of thumb (conservative) – 300 man hours for each hour of output
“I liked cyber protect because”:
- It felt real, programs got stale and needed updating. It exploited where I was weak
- Overall, this is an excellent product and one which I will take home to my network professionals and insist they give me a certificate.
- I found the CyberProtect exercise to be very instructional.  It did take me a while to get through the exercise but I was finally successful.  It was a good exercise and very informative.
- I found CyberProtect to be an excellent tool to test the knowledge of someone charged to protect an agency's infrastructure.  This is a tool that I will take back and provide to my team, and others within the department.
- When using the tool, one would quickly found out that if you did not at least cover your bases you were exposed and open to attacks.  This did not mean you had to purchase the high-end tools, but strategically placing low end items were the network could handle it, and balancing between the middle to high ranges.  Upgrades could be applied if funds were available later on.
- Overall, hands-on allows the students to understand the process.  There were issues that were raised that provoked questions.....the whole purpose of the exercise.”
Demo of ISWGS
Types of Attacks
InfoChess
A few "specialized" rules are added to the usual game of Chess to simulate some of the characteristics of Information Operations such as 
"psychological operations,
military deception,
operations security,
electronic warfare, and
physical destruction,
mutually supported by intelligence, to deny information to, influence, degrade, or destroy adversary command and control capabilities.“
 It is played by many of the Information Warfare groups within the U.S. Military
Characteristics
More Strategic in Nature – good for more “managerial” simulations, combining costs, and tools, people, and lifecycle issues like obsolescence
Quantitative and Qualitative Variables
Mix of apples & oranges, easily combine many seemingly disparate elements into one model
May include Multimedia
Benefits
Provides understanding of relationships, analysis of "nth order effects
ability to also change the model "on the fly”
good for working in groups to model the challenges
Analysis of long term effects
Capitalizes upon visual processing capability
Drawbacks
Requires basic understanding of the modeling symbolic representation system – system dynamics and/or discrete event simulation
Most people not attuned to thinking systemically – requires convincing that this approach has payoffs
Time and resource consuming – to build model
Rejection because complexity not understood – people prefer simplicity – the “right” answer
Switch over to ithink
Talk about Sectors –point out elements  Dig Down Capability, contrast to “canned” approach
A very simplified model
Drag & Drop 2 Servers into the environment
The MFS involves many different variables and variable types.
Typical simulation would have greater than 1000 variables.
Validation important but process of building the model is equally important – to overcome the blind men and elephant syndrome
Many different possible uses for M&S in the IT Manager’s environment
Show film segment here
Perception management, industry v. governmental roles,
Washington Post – 2 weeks ago article on bioterrorism role playing
Examples include
1. The Day After … in Cyberspace II [Anderson, 1997], a
2. Presidents Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection (PCCIP) Strategic Simulation created by Booz, Allen, & Hamilton [Critical, 1997],
3. Winn Swartou at the InfoWarCon Conference [InfoWarCon, 2001],
4. Cyber War at CSI 27 [Bliss, 2000], and
5. Dark Winter [Roberts, 2001]. Although Dark Winter is about BioTerrorism, it still conveys the type of strategic level decision-making and containment skills that would be necessary in a massive Cyber Terrorism event.
Typically combinations of custom built & high end network design packages used in role playing scenarios.
JSIMS http://www.jsims.mil/
Deny Delay Deceive
Voice & Data
Utilizes RunTime Infrastructure -
CNA CND Component
Focus on tactical battlefield
JQUAD is I.O segment of JSIMS run by CACI
JWARS Joint Warfare System
http://www.mitre.org/support/papers/tech_papers99_00/maxwell_jwars/index.shtml
C4ISR Component
NETWARS
http://www.disa.mil/D8/netwars/
Joint DISA & J-6 (C4i) project
Network simulation using OPNET
Network Warfare Simulation (NETWARS) is a communications  modeling  tool that enables the warfighter to credibly model  tactical and operational  communications demands with  all the stresses that combat places on communications systems.  
D-wall is a deception mechanism that produces “deception” traffic on a network similar to a honeypot
   http://all.net/journal/ntb/mathdeception/mathdeception.html
Cyber Command System is a centralized C2 system allowing command over the cyber security elements in a network; can recommend courses of action
  
Visual NRM is a static mapping tool which uses the Network Rating Methodology to
    http://chacs.nrl.navy.mil/projects/VisualNRM/
Value of formalized models, e.g. OSI should be evident
Drivers in HLA – DOD components, war fighting
Drivers in Common Criteria – vendors, government, need for international level