General Information
Course Description and Objectives
Text and Materials
Requirements and Grading
Schedule
Projects
Other Resources 

GENERAL INFORMATION

Instructor:            John H. Saunders, Ph.D.,  Work #: (202) 685-2078
E-mail:                 jsaunders@erols.com or saunders@ndu.edu 

COURSE DESCRIPTION and OBJECTIVES

Stock-flow analysis of feedback systems presented for policy analysis and management. System dynamics; principles of systems employed to structure the problem solving process. Problems and case studies solved using microcomputers.

1. Model, both mathematically and visually, concrete and abstract dynamic structures of a system environment.

2. Provide a foundation for the consequences of feedback, time delay, and non-linear activity in problem analysis and synthesis.

3. Develop and test the influence of endogenous and exogenous policy change variables upon environmental performance.

4. Provide cases where stock and flow analysis has provided unique insight into major issues.
 

1) Clark, Rolf. System Dynamics and Modeling. Operations Research Society of America. 1990. Modified for online usage 1998. (SD&M)

 Chapter 1  Chapter 2   [Incomplete Chapter 3  Chapter 4   Chapter 5  Chapter 6]

2) An Introduction to Systems Thinking. 2001. High Performing Systems.(IST)

3) ithink Strategy software v 8.0 from High Performing Systems. Manuals packaged with the software include: Getting Started with the ithink software and Technical Documentation, both 2001. (GS) Purchase of the software is not required. It is available in the lab, but must be used at that location.

4) Link to Models

COURSE REQUIREMENTS AND GRADING

1. Examination (25%):  There will be an in-class, closed book mid-term examination to test the student’s understanding of the basic concepts discussed early in the course. Format includes multiple choice questinos, causal loop diagramming, analysis and creation of stock and flow diagrams.

2. Individual Project (30%): Each student will create a system dynamics model in an area of their choosing. The model should be the student’s own work. Students may wish to refer to past International System Dynamics Conference Proceedings on the System Dynamics Society Homepage or to Prior Student Projects to get a feel for model domains.

3. Group Project (25%): Students will be assigned to a small group to create and exercise a joint model. See the following detail project description. A joint grade will be assigned to all members of the group. Additionally a peer evaluation will be utilized to measure and evaluate group cooperation. Individual grades may be adjusted accordingly.

4. Homework (10%): Two homework assignments will be completed and submitted. The assignments will be graded to insure adequate progress in absorption of the material. Students should work alone on these assignments. Homework Assignment 1  Homework Assignment 2

5. Class Participation (10%):  A great deal of the graduate learning experience is gained through a discussion of shared experiences and methods for improving quality and processes. In-class exercises and discussion will therefore be evaluated.  The criteria (from most important to least important) for judging a student’s contribution to the discussions are quality (well thought out, relevant to the topic), clarity, and frequency.

SCHEDULE
 

Session/Date	General Topic / Links	Readings / Assignments Due
1	Introduction, Course Review, Overview of ST, SD & the MFS	-
2	Systems and Causal Loops	IST:Preface&Chpt1; SD&M: Chpt 1 Kirkwood: Chapter 1
3	Systems and Causal Loops	Causal Loops Problem Set
4	Stocks and Flows; Lab 1	IST:Chpt 2; SD&M: Chpt 2
5	Building Structures; Lab 2	IST:Chpts 3,4;  SD&M: Chpt 3;  GS: Hand-in Clients Model p 17-33 In-class exercise
6	Functions; Lab 3	Technical Documentation: Chpt 7
7	Group Project Presentations	Group Project Papers and Models
8	Mid Term Examination	1 page individual project description
9	Model Validation; Lab Session	Forrester & Senge; Sterman;
10	Optimization / Forecasting	-
11	Guest Speaker	-
12	Survey of System Dynamics & Mgmt Flight Simulator Applications	Saunders
13	Connections with Chaos	-
14	Individual Presentations	Individual Project Papers and Models

The individual project consists of a unique systems study, further manifested through a dynamic model created in ithink. Students should create an accompanying 3-5 page paper which provides a description of the variables, explains the context for the model and talks to discoveries made while exercising the model. At the eighth class period each student should submit a brief one page project description of the model they plan to build. An example follows below:

Final Deliverables

The final project will be presented to the class in Session 14. The final ithink model and written 3-5 page paper are due at that time. The student will demonstrate and discuss the model in class and provide each instructor and each classmate with a 1 page description (diagram printout also very helpful) of the model.

Students should refer to prior student models (available from the instructor) to get a feel for the depth and complexity that is expected. A typical student model would have about 4 - 12 stocks and 15 - 30 converters. Real world models typically have hundreds to thousands of stocks and converters. These prior student projects may provide some aid in understanding appropriate modeling topics.

Examples:

• Dynamics of Federal bill introduction and passage.
• Preparation and response to large scale disasters (earthquates, hurricanes)
• Events leading to the use of military force to achieve national objectives.
• Financial market dynamics
• Events leading to the capture of industry market share

Deliverables (due on evening of presentation - hardcopy and softcopy):

     a) Model - completed model with minimum 10 activities/variables and 4 loops.
     b) Paper - minimum 5 page paper providing model foundations and conclusions.
     c) Presentation - 20-30 minute in-class.
     d) Handout - single page for all class members on the substance of the model.

Internet Links:

MIT -  http://sysdyn.mit.edu/sd-group/home.html
Tom Fiddamans Model Library - http://home.earthlink.net/~tomfid/models/models.html
London Business School -  http://pluto.lbs.lon.ac.uk/sysdyn
System Dynamics Society -  http://www.albany.edu/cpr/sds/
LISTSERV - e-mail to majordomo@world.std.com containing the following text subscribe system-dynamics end
Gene Bellinger’s home page - http://www.radix.net/~crbnblu/systems/sim/simulation.html
Arizona State University Professor Craig Kirkwood's pages - http://www.public.asu.edu/~kirkwood/sysdyn/SDRes.htm

Forrester, Jay. Industrial Dynamics. Productivity Press. Portland OR. 1961.

Hannon, B. and Ruth, M.

Modeling Dynamic Biological Systems. Springer Verlag. 1997.
Modeling Dynamic Economic Systems. Springer Verlag 1997.
Dynamic Modeling. Springer Verlag.  1994.

Hargrove, James L. Dynamic Modeling in the Health Sciences, Springer Verlag. 1998.

Morecroft & Sterman, eds. Modeling for Learning Organizations. Productivity Press. Portland OR. 1994.

Richardson, G., ed. Modelling for Management. Dartmouth Publishing Company. Brookfield, VT. 1997.

Roberts, E.B.  Managerial Applications of System Dynamics. Productivity Press. 1981.

Senge, P. The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook. Doubleday. New York NY. 1994.

System Dynamics Review, Wiley & Sons.
The Systems Thinker. Pegasus Communications.

Forrester, Jay and Senge, Peter. Tests for Building Confidence in System Dynamics Models. TIMS Studies in Management Sciences 14 (1980) 209-228.

Kirkwood, Craig. “System Behavior and Causal Loop Diagrams”, Chapter 1 in Integrated Business Process Analysis. Unpublished monograph. 1996. Available at  http://www.public.asu.edu/~kirkwood/sysdyn/SDIntro/SDIntro.htm

Sterman, J. D. 1984. Appropriate Summary Statistics for Evaluating the Historical Fit of System Dynamics Models. Dynamica, 10 (Winter), 51-66.